1000 Days

Sunday, August 23, 2009 Sunday, August 23, 2009

It is hard for me to believe, but I am 1000 days old today! My virtual existence has so permeated my life I cannot believe it can be measured in mere days; centuries are more what it feels like, as the fast paced activities in Second Life make events seem they occurred a very long time ago.

The main thing to consider is that I survived. Most people, probably greater than 90%, never make it this far. I am pretty certain on a wall in Linden Lab there’s a chart that goes something like this:  

The bluey areas represent the mass of people that survive each state. Going from left to right:

  • The Second Life website has piles of visitors, but only a few actually bother to register
  • Of those who register, only a small percentage login to the grid, create an avatar and survive the dreaded orientation without giving up
  • After orientation, avatars are unceremoniously dumped into typically hostile “welcome areas” where they are immediately beset upon by louts of various species. Many give up at this point
  • Emerging from the welcome area usually occurs when avatars find something useful and fun to do, like socializing, running a business, displaying their art, furthering a cause or playing a game. Those who don’t find something to do usually fade away

If you’ve made it all the way through those stages, congratulations! You’re one of the very, very few. And the most talented, too, because that seems to be a prerequisite for traversing all those stages.

My chart’s figures are only a guess, as we’ve seen only hints at these statistics from the Lab. But I imagine the shape of the curve is something like this. It may even be a lot thinner at the right-hand edge.

We now can also understand why the Lab spends time on the website, registration and orientation process - because if those stages are even slightly more successful, the latter stages will be flooded with many, many more avatars. And that’s just good business.


Unknown said...
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Unknown said...

Congrats on 1000 days!!!

While I do think work on the left side of the equation is valuable, it would be even MORE valuable to work on stuff toward the middle and left. Why? Any money that they spend getting people to the web site is wasted if they don't move them to the other stages. It is kind of like way back when people used to have lots and lots of children but only a few would survive due to childhood illnesses, accidents, etc. Today, people have fewer children but by and large they survive to adulthood. Taking better care of children and general health improvements meant a better survuval ratio.

Although it does not appear LL spends much to get to new customers, for most companies, getting a customer to take a fist step toward using a product is extremely expensive. Keeping them at that point is less costly than trying to attract new ones. LL will never be able to really grow its user base without understanding this.

Caliburn Susanto said...

I'm only 10 days behind you. And I've been in-world every single one of those 990 days - 40 or more hours a week every week for over 2-1/2 years.

I think about in-world activities and people as casually and often as I do the workaday world. I can't separate either out as more or less important generally speaking (barring out-world emergencies, of course).

I have to refrain from slipping into Second Life mode around friends and co-workers, however. They all fall silent and stare at me glassy-eyed with "I have no idea what the hell you are talking about" looks on their faces.

Here's to your next 1,000 days. Salud!

HALEY said...

interestingly unique way of counting your time here. I for one am pretty happy most of those people have given up. L.L. Is having trouble handling the amount of people that are here now. Slower growth means better quality for the rest of us!

Daniel Voyager said...

Congrats on 1000 days in Second Life!!!

As usual great posts. :)

I passed my 1000 days last month (July 27th 2009).

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